Research from the Financial and Fiscal Commission revealed that the demand for learner transport over this period increased from 498 263 learners in 2014 to 887 767 learners in 2024, an increase of 389 504 or (78%) learners for the 10 years.

Accuracy with respect to the actual learner transport demand is essential for planning and budgeting.

The most significant increase has been in Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal, increasing from 142 895 to 222 019 and 176 156 to 196 461, respectively, between 2014 and 2024.

The demand for learner transport outstrips the supply, which indicates that the government is unable to provide for all learners. In most cases, provinces fail to provide learner transport services to all qualifying learners and set targets far below the demand.

The timing for a new funding model for scholar transport is now more than any other time something the government should mull over.

Analysis from the Financial and Fiscal Commission points to funding constraints that force provinces to set their targets lower than the demand for learner transport.

The allocated budget has not been keeping up with the funding required to provide all qualifying learners with learner transport. As an example in 2024, the budget for learner transport was reduced from R4.8 billion to R4.3 billion. In addition, per learner funding allocation also decreased from R5 290 in 2023 to R4 824 in 2024.